Our Ice. Our Future.
Climate Change
To us, the main effect of climate warming means our lake ice is changing. Today, you can’t just circle a date on your calendar and know your first trip across the lake can be made safely, just because you have in the past. It is more important now than ever for the ice community to learn to adapt to our changing ice. Climate warming means even the experienced are heading into a new and unfamiliar ice regime. All you have to do is remember the winter of 2023/24. The expected changes in lake ice increase the risks markedly for all that travel on lake ice including the recreational, subsistence, and remote communities. No one has experience with oral histories from a warming climate.
Let’s be smart, situationally aware, share information, and help each other make the most of our ice experience today and in the future. After all, we are a tribe that loves the ice.
“…an extensive loss of lake ice will occur within the next generation…” Sharma and others, 2019.
“…for every 1°C increase in global air temperature, lakes are estimated to warm by 0.9°C and lose 9.7 days of ice cover”. Grant and others, October 2021.
”… the duration of safe ice for recreational purposes will shorten, on average, by 13, 17, and 24 days within a 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warmer world, Woolway et al. (2022).”
Li et al. (2022) showed the average timing of ice break-up advanced by 8-days from 1979 to 2020, suggesting we are already on the path of warming.
“The changes to and loss of lake ice expected in Canada and the northern USA is not the distant future. Understanding that the ice season will get shorter is important but for those that travel on it, the risks increase because ice formation and decay will change, too. We need new and innovative tools to help the lake ice community to observe, adapt and be resilient to climate change. Ice Time is our guide along that path into the future”.
Dr. Paul Cooley, NextGen Environmental Research Inc.
Key Research Insights We Can’t Afford to Ignore
